Assessing risks of adverse clinical course and outcome of an infectious disease with mathematical modeling of exposure to environmental factors on the example of aluminum oxide

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P.V. Trusov1, N.V. Zaitseva2, V.M. Chigvintsev1, 2


1Perm National Research Polytechnic University, 29 Komsomolskiy prospect, Perm, 614990, Russian Federation
2Federal Scientific Center for Medical and Preventive Health Risk Management Technologies, 82 Monastyrskaya Str., Perm, 614045, Russian Federation


Our research goal was to create a mathematical model that described anti-viral immune response regulation taking into account influence exerted by exposure to variable chemical factors. We analyzed a body response to an infection taking into account innate and adaptive immunity mechanisms. This created mathematical model helps to describe spatial distribution of immune and infectious agents in various organs and systems due to allowing for time lags occurring during interactions between different components participating in the process. The mathematical model is a system of ordinary differential equations with a retarded argument; separate addends of the model describe velocity properties of the processes that produce their effects on the development of an infectious disease. We suggest an algorithm for conducting an experiment aimed at identifying certain parameters related to influence exerted by chemical factors on interaction between the neuroendocrine and immune systems. We calculated dynamics in parameters of the immune and neuroendocrine systems when a viral infection occurs under experimental exposure to aluminum oxide. The suggested approach is applied within the concept of a multi-level human body model that takes into account interactions between systems and functional state of organs that are being examined under exposure to adverse factors of variable genesis. The conducted research provides a qualitative conception about causes that explain quantitative changes in a viral agent when an immune response occurs in a body under exposure to variable factors. This approach can be applied to adjust parameters of existing population models, spread and clinical course of different infections, and to draw up a long-term forecast of an epidemiologic situation which is necessary when risks of infectious diseases are analyzed, including those occurring when a body is exposed to adverse environmental factors.

mathematical model, dynamic system, viral disease, innate immunity, adaptive immunity, neuroendocrine regulation
Trusov P.V., Zaitseva N.V., Chigvintsev V.M. Assessing risks of adverse clinical course and outcome of an infectious dis-ease with mathematical modeling of exposure to environmental factors on the example of aluminum oxide. Health Risk Analysis, 2019, no. 1, pp. 17–29. DOI: 10.21668/health.risk/2019.1.02.eng
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