Assessment of potential epidemic hazards caused by combined foci with bacterial, viral, and ricketsial infections

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health-risk-analysis-2019-1-8.pdf

UDC:

614.4: 616.9

DOI:

10.21668/health.risk/2019.1.08.eng

Authors:

Е.V. Kuklev1, А.А.Kovalevskaya2, B.L. Agapov2, S.А Scherbakova 1

Organization:

1Rospotrebnadzor's Russian Scientific and Research Anti-Plague Institute "Microbe", 46 Universitetskaya Str., Saratov, 410005, Russian Federation
2Rospotrebnadzor's Anti-plague Station in Astrakhan', 3 Kubanskaya str., Astrakhan', 414057, Russian Federation

Abstract:

The authors performed epidemiologic analysis on 2,008 case histories of dangerous feral nidal infections among Astrakhan' region population over the last 17 years. It allowed them to characterize basic categories of epidemiologic risk related to such infections under contemporary conditions and determine the most significant statistically authentic (р<0.05) criteria for assessing potential epidemic hazards caused by autonomous and combined natural foci with bacterial, viral, or ricketsial nature in the north and northwestern Caspian Lowlands. The determined criteria included a number of morbid cases among people, quantity of infection carriers and agents (fleas, ticks, and mosquitoes), contamination of rodents and infection carriers, circulating strains virulence, presence of camels, results of immunologic research performed on infection carriers and agents, immune layer among risk groups that include people and animals, ambient temperature, and average annual precipitations. The authors took epidemiological data obtained by Rospoterbnadzor's Astrakhan' Anti-plague Station, Astrakhan' Regional Center for Hygiene and Epidemiology, and A.M. Nichoga's Regional Infectious Clinical Hospital; the data were collected over 2000–2017 and were given in primary medical documentation including forms No. 027/U, No. 058/U, No. 060/U), as well as in reports with results of epizootologic examinations accomplished on the examined territories. The authors applied score assessment to work out an algorithm for determining qualitative and quantitative parameters of hazards caused for people by natural foci of plague, tularemia, leptospirosis, Crimean hemorrhagic fever, West Nile fever, and Astrakhan's ricketsial fever. This technique allows to perform scientifically substantiated epidemiologic zoning of territories with foci and to differentiate necessary prevention activities both in combined and autonomous infectious diseases foci with simultaneous reduction in expenditure.

Keywords:

potential epidemic hazards, natural foci with bacterial, viral, and ricketsial infections

Kuklev Е.V., Kovalevskaya А.А., Agapov B.L., Scherbakova S.А. Assessment of potential epidemic hazards caused by combined foci with bacterial, viral, and ricketsial infections. Health Risk Analysis, 2019, no. 1, pp. 78–83. DOI: 10.21668/health.risk/2019.1.08.eng

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