Population mortality in the Kyrgyz Republic: Structure, trends and preventability determinants

UDC: 
614.2:614.1
DOI: 
10.21668/health.risk/2026.1.15.eng
Authors: 

A.B. Dzhanaliev, N.K. Kasiev, O.A. Bolbachan, D.D. Ibraimova, M.A. Mambetov

Organization: 

Kyrgyz-Russian Slavic University named after B.N. Yeltsin, 44 Kievskaya Str., Bishkek, 720000, Kyrgyz Republic

Abstract: 

The article presents a comprehensive analysis of trends and dynamics in the structure of mortality in the Kyrgyz Republic from 2018 to 2023, considering the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and socio-demographic factors. The aim of the study was to identify patterns in changes in mortality indicators by major classes of diseases and to determine medical and social determinants influencing the level of preventable mortality. The study results may provide a basis for further risks of medical and demographic losses in the country.

Official data from the Center for Electronic Health of the Ministry of Health of the Kyrgyz Republic were used as the primary source. The analysis was carried out per main classes of diseases according to ICD-10, with the calculation of time-series indicators and comparative assessment of data by regions, including the Chuy Region.

The study results showed that the COVID-19 pandemic caused a sharp increase in mortality in 2020, followed by a gradual decline and stabilization of mortality rates. The main contribution to the overall mortality structure was made by diseases of the circulatory system, respiratory diseases, neoplasms, and endocrine disorders. In 2020–2021, there was a significant increase in mortality from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, which was consistent with global trends in excess mortality during the pandemic. At the same time, pronounced regional disparities were identified, along with a persistently high level of preventable mortality among the rural population largely due to limited access to healthcare and low awareness of risk factors.

The analysis confirms that mortality dynamics is determined not only by medical but also by socioeconomic and environmental factors. The findings highlight the need to improve the system for monitoring causes of death, enhance the quality of preventive and diagnostic measures, and strengthen primary healthcare. The presented data are of practical importance for specialists in public health, demography, and social policy since they help to develop effective measures for managing demographic processes.

A comprehensive approach to managing medical and demographic indicators should form the basis for developing national strategies aimed at reducing preventable mortality and increasing life expectancy in the Kyrgyz Republic.

Keywords: 
mortality, diseases of the circulatory system, respiratory diseases, neoplasms, injuries and poisonings, healthcare system, demography, diseases, preventable mortality, COVID-19
Dzhanaliev A.B., Kasiev N.K., Bolbachan O.A., Ibraimova D.D., Mambetov M.A. Population mortality in the Kyrgyz Republic: structure, trends and preventability determinants. Health Risk Analysis, 2026, no. 1, pp. 157–166. DOI: 10.21668/health.risk/2026.1.15.eng
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Received: 
18.11.2025
Approved: 
12.03.2026
Accepted for publication: 
26.03.2026

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