Relative risk and dose thresholds with their uncertainties for different severity degrees of acute radiation syndrome

UDC: 
613.6.027
DOI: 
10.21668/health.risk/2026.1.10.eng
Authors: 

S.V. Osovets

Organization: 

Southern Urals Federal Scientific Clinical Center for Medical Biophysics of the Federal Medical Biological Agency, 19 Ozyorskoe shosse, Ozyorsk, 456780, Russian Federation

Abstract: 

The aim of this study was to assess dose thresholds and their uncertainties for different severity degrees of acute radiation syndrome (ARS) and to establish relative risk (RR) of transition from preceding ARS severity degree to a higher one.

The study objects were represented by 104 individuals with ARS developed after Chernobyl disaster at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in 1986 with literature available data on ARS severity degree and verified external g-β-radiation doses.

Empirical dose distributions in each group of ARS severity degree were approximated by the distribution function based on Weibull model; dose thresholds (D0) and their uncertainties (U, %) were calculated by pairwise examination of distribution functions for the study groups; RR of transition from preceding ARS severity degree to a higher one were calculated by using fourfold tables. The calculation results were presented in the paper in pairs in accordance with the ARS severity degrees: Groups I–II (D0 = 1.95 Gy; U = 9.38 %; RR = 3.05), Groups II–III (D0 = 3.96 Gy; U = 4.63 %; RR = 5.93), Groups III–IV (D0 = 6.13 Gy; U = 6.81 %; RR = 8.82).

The study findings have not only scientific but also practical significance as they make it possible to predict ARS severity degrees more accurately if data are available on external radiation exposure doses after a radiation accident. It is also proposed to correct the regulated dose range for IV severity degree of bone marrow ARS syndrome based on these findings.

Keywords: 
acute radiation syndrome, severity degree, dose threshold, uncertainty, relative risk, radiation accident, Chernobyl nuclear power station, modeling
Osovets S.V. Relative risk and dose thresholds with their uncertainties for different severity degrees of acute radiation syndrome. Health Risk Analysis, 2026, no. 1, pp. 106–114. DOI: 10.21668/health.risk/2026.1.10.eng
References: 
  1. McLaughlin T.P., Monahan S.P., Pruvost N.L., Frolov V.V., Ryazanov B.G., Sviridov V.I. A Review of Criticality Accidents. Los Alamos, Los Alamos National Laboratory Publ., 2000, 144 p.
  2. Kruglov A. The History of the Soviet Atomic Industry. London, CRC Press, 2002, 288 p.
  3. Friesecke I., Beyer K., Densow D., Fliedner T.M., Belyi D., Gergel O., Kowalenko A., Bebeshko V., Baranov A. Acute radiation exposure and early hematopoietic response pattern: an evaluation of the Chernobyl accident victims. Int. J. Radiat. Med., 1999, no. 1, pp. 55–62.
  4. Ivanov V.K., Tsyb A.F. Meditsinskie i radiobiologicheskie posledstviya Chernobylya dlya naseleniya Rossii: otsenka radiatsionnykh riskov [Medical and radiobiological consequences of the Chernobyl for Russia’s population: radiation risk esti-mates]. Moscow, Meditsina, 2002, 392 p. (in Russian).
  5. Harrison J., Leggett R., Lloyd D., Phipps A., Scott B. Polonium-210 as a poison. J. Radiol. Prot., 2007, vol. 27, no. 1, pp. 17–40. DOI: 10.1088/0952-4746/27/1/001
  6. Scott B.R. Health risk evaluation for ingestions exposure of humans to polonium-210. Dose Response, 2007, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 94–122. DOI: 10.2203/dose-response.06-013.Scott
  7. Sources, Effects and Risks of Ionizing Radiation: UNSCEAR 2013 Report Volume I. New York, UNSCEAR, 2014, 311 p.
  8. Radiatsionnaya meditsina [Radiation medicine]: in 4 volumes. In: L.A. Il’in ed. Moscow, IzdAT, 2001, vol. 2. Radi-atsionnye porazheniya cheloveka [Radiation injuries in humans], 432 p. (in Russian).
  9. Lushnikov E.F., Abrosimov A.Yu. Sovremennaya luchevaya patologiya cheloveka: problemy metodologii issledovanii, etiologii, patogneneza i klassifikatsii [Present-day radiation pathology in humans: problems of study methodology, etiology, pathogenesis and classification]. Obninsk, FGBU MRNTs Minzdravsotsrazvitiya Rossii Publ., 2012, 236 p. (in Russian).
  10. Stewart F.A., Akleyev A.V., Hauer-Jensen M., Hendry J.H., Kleiman N.J., MacVittie T.J., Aleman B.M., Edgar A.B. [et al.]. ICRP PUBLICATION 118: ICRP Statement on Tissue Reactions and Early and Late Effects of Radiation in Normal Tissues and Organs – Threshold Doses for Tissue Reactions in a Radiation Protection Context. In: A.V. Akleev, M.F. Kiselev eds.; E.M. Zhidkova, N.S. Kotova translation from English. Chelyabinsk, Kniga, 2012, 384 p. (in Russian).
  11. Osovets S.V., Azizova T.V., Gergenreyder S.N. Methods of estimation of dose thresholds for deterministic effects. Meditsinskaya radiologiya i radiatsionnaya bezopasnost', 2009, vol. 54, no. 2, pp. 25–31 (in Russian).
  12. Osovets S.V., Azizova T.V., Day R.D., Wald N., Druzhinina M.B. Assessment of risk and dose thresholds for some effects of acute exposure. Health Phys., 2011, vol. 100, no. 2, pp. 176–184. DOI: 10.1097/HP.0b013e3181ebd123
  13. Osovets S.V., Azizova T.V., Gergenreider S.N. Methods of Uncertainty Assessment for Deterministic Effects Dose Thresholds. Meditsinskaya radiologiya i radiatsionnaya bezopasnost', 2010, vol. 55, no. 3, pp. 11–16 (in Russian).
  14. IAEA. Follow-up of delayed health consequences of acute accidental radiation exposure. Lessons to be learned from their medical management. Vienna, International Atomic Energy Agency, 2002, 138 р. Available at: https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/te_1300_web.pdf (September 09, 2025).
  15. Mettler F.A. Jr, Gus'kova A.K., Gusev I. Health effects in those with acute radiation sickness from the Chernobyl accident. Health Phys., 2007, vol. 93, no. 5, pp. 462–469. DOI: 10.1097/01.HP.0000278843.27969.74
  16. Gus'kova A.K. Meditsinskie posledstviya avarii na Chernobyl'skoi AES. Osnovnye itogi i nereshennye problemy [Health consequences of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident: Key findings and unresolved issues]. Atomnaya energiya, 2012, vol. 113, iss. 2, pp. 109–116 (in Russian).
  17. Galstyan I.A., Nadejina N.M., Suvorova L.A., Kashirina O.G., Nugis V.Ju. Medical consequences of Chernobyl acci-dent. Saratovskii nauchno-meditsinskii zhurnal, 2015, vol. 11, no. 4, pp. 637–644 (in Russian).
  18. Samoylov A.S., Bushmanov A.Yu., Galstyan I.A. Medical management: major lessons learned from the Chernobyl accident (the review). J. Radiol. Prot., 2021, vol. 41, no. 3. DOI: 10.1088/1361-6498/ac14d4
  19. Ostraya luchevaya bolezn' cheloveka: atlas-monografiya. Chast' I. Postradavshie pri radiatsionnoi avarii na ChAES 1986 g. [Acute radiation syndrome in humans. Atlas. Volume I. Victims of the radiation accident at the ChNPP in 1986]. In: A.S. Samoilova, V.Yu. Solov'eva eds. Moscow, FGBU GNTs im. Burnazyana FMBA Rossii Publ., 2016, 140 p. (in Russian).
  20. Soloviev V.Yu., Nugis V.Yu., Khamidulin T.M., Krasnjuk V.I. Research of haemotogical criteria’s prognostic value in radiation injuries severity assessment. Medline.ru, 2011, vol. 12, art. 35, pp. 420–430. Available at: http://www.medline.ru/public/art/tom12/art35.html (September 09, 2025) (in Russian).
  21. ICRP Publication 103. The 2007 Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection. In: translation from English; M.F. Kiselev, N.K. Shandala eds. Moscow, OOO PKF «Alana» Publ., 2009, 344 p. (in Russian).
  22. Fry R.J. Deterministic effects. Health Phys., 2001, vol. 80, no. 4, pp. 338–343. DOI: 10.1097/00004032-200104000-00009
  23. Samoylov A.S., Konchalovsky M.V., Bushmanov A.Yu., Galstyan I.A., Nugis V.Yu., Davtyan A.A., Kolganova L.R., Metlyaeva N.A., Torubarov F.S. Recommendations for the diagnosis and treatment of bone marrow form of acute radiation syn-drome. Gematologiya i transfuziologiya, 2023, vol. 68, no. 1, pp. 98–128. DOI: 10.35754/0234-5730-2023-68-1-98-128 (in Rus-sian).
  24. Telnov V.I., Azizova T.V., Moseeva M.B., Bannikova M.V. Lifetime of Mayak workers after acute radiation syndrome of various severity levels. Radiatsionnaya gigiena, 2023, vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 80–90. DOI: 10.21514/1998-426X-2023-16-1-80-90 (in Russian).
  25. IAEA. Safety Reports Series No 101. Medical management of radiation injures. Vienna, International Atomic Energy Agency Publ., 2020, 112 р.
  26. Port M., Pieper B., Dorr H.D., Hubsch A., Majewski M., Abend M. Correlation of radiation dose estimates by DIC with the METREPOL hematological classes of disease severity. Radiat. Res., 2018, vol. 189, no. 5, pp. 449–455. DOI: 10.1667/RR14936.1
  27. Singh V.K., Santiago P., Simas M., Garcia M., Fatanmi O., Wise S.Y., Seed T. Acute radiation syndrome: an update on biomarkers for radiation injury. Journal of Radiation and Cancer Research, 2018, vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 132–146. DOI: 10.4103/jrcr.jrcr_26_18
Received: 
21.10.2025
Approved: 
02.02.2026
Accepted for publication: 
26.03.2026

You are here

Home