Establishing relative risks of late effects caused by severe acute methanol poisoning based on experimental data

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health-risk-analysis-2025-4-13.pdf

UDC:

616-099+616.24-005.98

DOI:

10.21668/health.risk/2025.4.13.eng

Authors:

P.K. Potapov^1,2, E.B. Shustov¹, M.V. Melnikovа¹, A.A. Bondarenko¹, A.V. Belskaya¹, D.A. Pshennikova¹, M.E. Shemaev¹, L.G. Kubarskaya¹, I.V. Markin³, I.B. Bugorskiy²

Organization:

¹Golikov Research Center of Toxicology, 1 Bekhtereva Str., Saint Petersburg, 192019, Russian Federation
²Military Medical Academy named after S.M. Kirov, 6 Akademika Lebedeva Str., Saint Petersburg, 194044, Russian Federation
³Military Innovative Technopolis «ERA», 41 Pionerskii Ave., Anapa, 353456, Russian Federation

Abstract:

Methanol poisoning is a common problem, often characterized by severe consequences for victims. Over the past decade, at least five fatal methanol poisonings (involving more than 50 people in each case) have occurred in the Russian Federation alone.

The pathogenetic mechanisms and clinical manifestations of methanol intoxication are well understood. However, individuals who have experienced acute poisoning often develop various pathological
conditions in the long-term period, and their pathogenesis remains poorly understood. Biological models with a wide range of methods for assessing the condition of laboratory animals should help address this issue.

An experimental study has shown that some methods are highly specific for identifying individual manifestations of late effects caused by acute methanol poisoning. Thus, animals' high-speed running on a treadmill, the time spent in a dark chamber during the CPAR test, and individual hematological parameters (reticulocyte volume, monocyte and lymphocyte counts) can, with varying statistical significance, differentiate animals with specific signs of long-term effects of acute methanol poisoning. Therefore, the use of a criteria-based approach, calculating an integrated scoring system for severity of late effects, appears justified, allowing for the assessment of their development during biomodeling.

When determining the relative risk for assessing the strength of the relationship between exposure to a risk factor (present signs of a pathological symptom complex) and outcome (the development of late effects), the risk of developing late effects after severe acute methanol poisoning was found to be the highest in case signs of psychoorganic and psychoasthenic symptom complexes were present.

The results of the experimental study may be important in revealing the pathogenetic mechanisms underlying the development of late effects caused by severe acute methanol poisoning.

Keywords:

methanol, formaldehyde, formic acid, biological modeling, intoxication, poisoning, late effects, experimental methods, risk

Potapov P.K., Shustov E.B., Melnikovа M.V., Bondarenko A.A., Belskaya A.V., Pshennikova D.A., Shemaev M.E., Kubarskaya L.G., Markin I.V., Bugorskiy I.B. Establishing relative risks of late effects caused by severe acute methanol poisoning based on experimental data. Health Risk Analysis, 2025, no. 4, pp. 133–143. DOI: 10.21668/health.risk/2025.4.13.eng

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