Assessing economic losses from risks of heat-related premature mortality using satellite mapping in Russian megacities

UDC: 
614.2, 614.8, 612.014.43, 551.582.3
DOI: 
10.21668/health.risk/2025.2.04.eng
Authors: 

V.I. Gornyy1, S.G. Kritsuk1, I.Sh. Latypov1, A.A. Tronin1, R.V. Buzinov2, S.N. Noskov2, G.B. Yeremin2, D.S. Borisova2

Organization: 

1Saint Petersburg Federal Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 39, 14th Line V.O., St. Petersburg, 199178, Russian Federation
2North-West Public Health Research Center, 4, 2nd Sovetskaya st., St. Petersburg, 191036, Russian Federation

Abstract: 

This research aims to address the challenges associated with utilizing satellite imagery to create maps of economic losses due to premature deaths caused by urban heat stress in the Russian cities of Omsk and Rostov-on-Don.

The study intends to provide quantitative data that can be utilized for economic decision-making processes in the areas of environmental safety and public health. It suggests a theoretically substantiated satellite-based approach to map potential risks, mortality rates, and economic losses associated with heat-related fatalities. This approach has the potential to translate long-term satellite observations of urban temperatures into actionable recommendations for urban planning and health management strategies. The relevance of this research stems from the ongoing global concern regarding climate change and its negative impact on the health of urban residents.

Our research team has created digital maps of two significant cities, Omsk and Rostov-on-Don, each with similar populations but differing climatic conditions. These maps show the number of deaths associated with heat-related events as well as the associated economic losses. Their spatial resolution is 100 × 100 m, which allows analyzing a situation in a city as whole and within its municipal districts. Having compared the results obtained by satellite mapping with medical statistics per some Omsk districts, we have assessed the accuracy of our methodology to be approximately 20%. Our findings emphasize both the advisability to make strategic investments in mitigating risks of urban environment overheating in areas with a high potential for increased mortality from heat-related causes and the potential value of utilizing this information in urban planning initiatives aimed at adapting healthcare systems to global warming.

Keywords: 
climate warming, urban heat islands, megacities, Omsk, Rostov-on-Don, overheating, risk, heat-related mortality, satellite, mapping, economic losses
Gornyy V.I., Kritsuk S.G., Latypov I.Sh., Tronin A.A., Buzinov R.V., Noskov S.N., Yeremin G.B., Borisova D.S. Assessing economic losses from risks of heat-related premature mortality using satellite mapping in russian megacities. Health Risk Anal-ysis, 2025, no. 2, pp. 46–59. DOI: 10.21668/health.risk/2025.2.04.eng
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Received: 
23.05.2025
Approved: 
09.06.2025
Accepted for publication: 
26.06.2025

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