Calculating the number of disease cases associated with acute short-term exposure to harmful chemicals in ambient air
D.А. Kiryanov, М.Yu. Tsinker, D.R. Khismatullin
Federal Scientific Center for Medical and Preventive Health Risk Management Technologies,
82 Monastyrskaya Str., Perm, 614045, Russian Federation
The article addresses development of methodical approaches to calculating levels of health disorders caused by short-term exposure to ambient air pollution. We have established and parameterized relationships relevant for quantification of probable health outcomes as responses to elevated levels of chemicals in ambient air higher than their reference ones. These relationships were modeled using system analysis techniques and were based on dynamic data series on ambient air quality at the control points and the number of applications for medical aid in settlements with their overall population being more than 5 million people. We have formalized relationships that describe how intensively acute health disorders develop under short-term exposure to chemical levels in ambient air being higher than the reference ones that are identified at the control points. The resulting models rely on official data and can be used to predict and assess public health risks in any area where ambient air quality is monitored.
The formalized relationships were tested within identifying levels of incidence associated with acute short-term exposure to ambient air pollution in a large industrial center. It was established that, according to data collected in 2020, the highest associated incidence was caused by exposure to benzene (on average 0.364 mg/m3 higher than the reference level) in ambient air and was detected as per such nosologies as ‘Allergic rhinitis unspecified’ and ‘Predominantly allergic asthma’.
We are planning to use the results obtained at this stage in the research in further development of methodical approaches to assessing and predicting chemical health risks in areas influenced by hazardous chemical objects under short-term exposure to high levels of pollutants.
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