Calculating the number of disease cases associated with acute short-term exposure to harmful chemicals in ambient air

View or download the full article: 

D.А. Kiryanov, М.Yu. Tsinker, D.R. Khismatullin


Federal Scientific Center for Medical and Preventive Health Risk Management Technologies,
82 Monastyrskaya Str., Perm, 614045, Russian Federation


The article addresses development of methodical approaches to calculating levels of health disorders caused by short-term exposure to ambient air pollution. We have established and parameterized relationships relevant for quantification of probable health outcomes as responses to elevated levels of chemicals in ambient air higher than their reference ones. These relationships were modeled using system analysis techniques and were based on dynamic data series on ambient air quality at the control points and the number of applications for medical aid in settlements with their overall population being more than 5 million people. We have formalized relationships that describe how intensively acute health disorders develop under short-term exposure to chemical levels in ambient air being higher than the reference ones that are identified at the control points. The resulting models rely on official data and can be used to predict and assess public health risks in any area where ambient air quality is monitored.

The formalized relationships were tested within identifying levels of incidence associated with acute short-term exposure to ambient air pollution in a large industrial center. It was established that, according to data collected in 2020, the highest associated incidence was caused by exposure to benzene (on average 0.364 mg/m3 higher than the reference level) in ambient air and was detected as per such nosologies as ‘Allergic rhinitis unspecified’ and ‘Predominantly allergic asthma’.

We are planning to use the results obtained at this stage in the research in further development of methodical approaches to assessing and predicting chemical health risks in areas influenced by hazardous chemical objects under short-term exposure to high levels of pollutants.

ambient air, public health risk, priority pollutants, mathematical modeling, applications for medical aid, chemical levels, associated incidence
Kiryanov D.А., Tsinker М.Yu., Khismatullin D.R. Calculating the number of disease cases associated with acute short-term exposure to harmful chemicals in ambient air. Health Risk Analysis, 2023, no. 2, pp. 69–79. DOI: 10.21668/health.risk/2023.2.06.eng
  1. Avaliani S.L., Bezpal'ko L.E., Bobkova I.E., Mishina A.L. The perspective directions of development of methodology of the analysis of risk in Russia. Gigiena i sanitariya, 2013, vol. 92, no. 1, pp. 33–35 (in Russian).
  2. Rakhmanin Yu.A. Actualization of methodological problems of reglamentation of chemical pollutions on the environment. Gigiena i sanitariya, 2016, vol. 95, no. 8, pp. 701–707. DOI: 10.18821/0016-9900-2016-95-8-701-707 (in Russian).
  3. Zaitseva N.V., Shur P.Z., Chetverkina K.V., Khasanova A.A. Developing methodical approaches to substantiating average annual maximum permissible concentrations of hazardous substances in ambient air in settlements as per acceptable health risk. Health Risk Analysis, 2020, no. 3, pp. 39–48. DOI: 10.21668/health.risk/2020.3.05.eng
  4. Onishchenko G.G., Novikov S.M., Rakhmanin Yu.A., Avaliani S.L., Bushtueva K.A. Osnovy otsenki riska dlya zdorov'ya naseleniya pri vozdeistvii khimicheskikh veshchestv, zagryaznyayushchikh okruzhayushchuyu sredu [Fundamentals of public health risk assessment under exposure to chemicals that pollute the environment]. Moscow, NII ECh i GOS, 2002, 408 p. (in Russian).
  5. Pope C.A. 3rd, Thun M.J., Namboodiri M.M., Dockery D.W., Evans J.S., Speizer F.E., Heath C.W. Jr. Particulate air pollution as a predictor of mortality in a prospective study of U.S. adults. Am. J. Respir. Crit. Care Med., vol. 151, no. 3, pt 1, pp. 669–674. DOI: 10.1164/ajrccm/151.3_Pt_1.669
  6. Dockery D.W., Pope C.A. 3rd, Xu X., Spengler J.D., Ware J.H., Fay M.E., Ferris B.G., Speizer F.E. An association between air pollution and mortality in six U.S. cities. N. Engl. J. Med., 1993, vol. 329, no. 24, pp. 1753–1759. DOI: 10.1056/NEJM199312093292401
  7. Pope C.A. 3rd, Schwartz J., Ransom M.R. Daily Mortality and PM10 pollution in Utah Valley. Arch. Environ. Health, 1992, vol. 47, no. 3, pp. 211–217. DOI: 10.1080/00039896.1992.9938351
  8. Schwartz J. Air pollution and daily mortality in Birmingham Alabama. Am. J. Epidemiol., 1993, vol. 137, no. 10, pp. 1136–1147. DOI: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a116617
  9. Schwartz J., Morris R. Air Pollution and Hospital admissions for cardiovascular disease in Detroit, Michigan. Am. J. Epidemiol., 1995, vol. 142, no. 1, pp. 23–35. DOI: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a117541
  10. Burnett R.T., Cakmak S., Brook J.R., Krewski D. The role of particulate size and chemistry in the association between summertime ambient air pollution and hospitalization for cardiorespiratory disease. Environ. Health Perspect., 1997, vol. 105, no. 6, pp. 614–620. DOI: 10.1289/ehp.97105614
  11. Misiukiewicz-Stepien P., Paplinska-Goryca M. Biological effect of PM10 on airway epithelium-focus on obstructive lung diseases. Clin. Immunol., 2021, vol. 227, pp. 108754. DOI: 10.1016/j.clim.2021.108754
  12. Arias-Pérez R.D., Taborda N.A., Gómez D.M., Narvaez J.F., Porras J., Hernandez J.C. Inflammatory effects of particulate matter air pollution. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. Int., 2020, vol. 27, no. 34, pp. 42390–42404. DOI: 10.1007/s11356-020-10574-w
  13. Prytkova E.V., Mavrin G.V., Mansurova A.I. Comparative analysis dispersed composition of the dust at the workplace. Mezhdunarodnyi nauchno-issledovatel'skii zhurnal, 2016, vol. 1–2 (43), pp. 69–70. DOI: 10.18454/IRJ.2016.43.134 (in Russian).
  14. Skalny A.V., Lima T.R.R., Ke T., Zhou J.-C., Bornhorst J., Alekseenko S.I., Aaseth J., Anesti O. [et al.]. Toxic metal exposure as a possible risk factor for COVID-19 and other respiratory infectious diseases. Food Chem. Toxicol., 2020, vol. 146, pp. 111809. DOI: 10.1016/j.fct.2020.111809
  15. Wang F., Chen T., Chang Q., Kao Y.-W., Li J., Chen M., Li Y., Shia B.-C. Respiratory diseases are positively associated with PM2.5 concentrations in different areas of Taiwan. PLoS One, 2021, vol. 16, no. 4, pp. e0249694. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0249694
  16. Pun V.C., Kazemiparkouhi F., Manjourides J., Suh H.H. Long-Term PM2.5 Exposure and Respiratory, Cancer, and Cardiovascular Mortality in Older US Adults. Am. J. Epidemiol., 2017, vol. 186, no. 8, pp. 961–969. DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwx166
  17. Kioumourtzoglou M.-A., Spiegelman D., Szpiro A.A., Sheppard L., Kaufman J.D., Yanosky J.D., Williams R., Laden F. [et al.]. Exposure measurement error in PM2.5 health effects studies: a pooled analysis of eight personal exposure validation studies. Environ. Health, 2014, vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 2. DOI: 10.1186/1476-069X-13-2
  18. Zhou X., Gao Y., Wang D., Chen W., Zhang X. Association Between Sulfur Dioxide and Daily Inpatient Visits With Respiratory Diseases in Ganzhou, China: A Time Series Study Based on Hospital Data. Front. Public Health, 2022, vol. 10, pp. 854922. DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.854922
  19. Maklakova O.A. Assessing risks of respiratory organs diseases and co-morbid pathology in children caused by ambient air contamination with technogenic chemicals (cohort study). Health Risk Analysis, 2019, no. 2, pp. 56–63. DOI: 10.21668/health.risk/2019.2.06.eng
  20. Piao C.H., Fan Y., Nguyen T.V., Shin H.S., Kim H.T., Song C.H., Chai O.H. PM2.5 Exacerbates Oxidative Stress and Inflammatory Response through the Nrf2/NF-κB Signaling Pathway in OVA-Induced Allergic Rhinitis Mouse Model. Int. J. Mol. Sci., 2021, vol. 22, no. 15, pp. 8173. DOI: 10.3390/ijms22158173
Accepted for publication: 

You are here