Methodical approaches to assessing public health risks under combined exposure to climatic factors and chemical air pollution caused by them

View or download the full article: 
PDF icon health-risk-analysis-2023-2-5.pdf
UDC: 
613.1; 614
DOI: 
10.21668/health.risk/2023.2.05.eng
Authors: 

P.Z. Shur, А.А. Khasanova, М.Yu. Tsinker, N.V. Zaitseva

Organization: 

Federal Scientific Center for Medical and Preventive Health Risk Management Technologies, 82 Monastyrskaya Str., Perm, 614045, Russian Federation

Abstract: 

The ongoing climate change makes its contribution to public health risks. These risks can be caused both due to direct impacts of the process and modifying influence exerted by climatic factors on chemical levels in ambient air. Given that, it is advisable to develop methodical approaches that give an opportunity to quantify public health risks under combined influence of climatic factors and chemical air pollution caused by them.

In this study, we suggest methodical approaches eligible for calculating, assigning a category and assessing acceptability of public health risks under climatic exposures considering their influence on chemical air pollution. We outline approaches to establishing priority climatic factors, calculating exposure levels and associated responses; making up a list of chemicals levels of which are influenced by climatic factors and probable health outcomes caused by exposure to them; identifying levels of chemicals associated with climatic influence; calculating and assigning a category for public health risks associated with combined exposure to climatic and chemical factors using a multiple logistic regression model.

We tested the approaches using data collected in Perm in 2020. As a result, we established an unacceptable health risk for working age population (1.11•10-4) due to cerebrovascular diseases (I60–I69). This risk was associated with combined exposure to climatic factors (heat waves) and associated chemical air pollution (high levels of carbon oxide). Risk levels for working age population and older age groups due to diseases of the circulatory system (ischaemic heart diseases (I20–I25) and other cardiac arrhythmias (I49)) were rated as permissible (acceptable), 7.68•10-5 and 4.07•10-5 accordingly. The contribution made by the analyzed climatic factor (heat waves) varied between 76.24 and 92.44 %; the analyzed chemical factor (carbon oxide), between 7.56 and 23.76 %.

Keywords: 
climate, climatic factors, chemical air pollution, public health risk assessment, quantitative indicators, heat wave, carbon oxide, multifactorial models
Shur P.Z., Khasanova А.А., Tsinker М.Yu., Zaitseva N.V. Methodical approaches to assessing public health risks under combined exposure to climatic factors and chemical air pollution caused by them. Health Risk Analysis, 2023, no. 2, pp. 58–68. DOI: 10.21668/health.risk/2023.2.05.eng
References: 
  1. Es'kov V.M., Nazin A.G., Rusak S.N., Filatova O.E., Khadartseva K.A. The system analysis and synthesis of influence of dynamics of climatic and ecological factors on disease of the population in North. Vestnik novykh meditsinskikh tekhnologii, 2008, vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 26–29 (in Russian).
  2. Zaitseva N., Chetverkina K., Khasanova A. Hazard identification of climate risk factors on health of the far north population. 20th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference – SGEM 2020. Vienna, Austria, December 08–11, 2020, book 4.2, vol. 20, pp. 163–168. DOI: 10.5593/sgem2020V/4.2/s06.20
  3. Zero regrets: scaling up action on climate change mitigation and adaptation for health in the WHO European Region. Key messages from the Working Group on health in climate change. WHO, 2021. Available at: https://www.who.int/europe/publications/i/item/WHO-EURO-2021-3198-42956-... (February 21, 2023).
  4. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva, Switzerland, IPCC, 2014. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/ (March 15, 2023).
  5. Crimmins A., Balbus J.L., Gamble C.B., Beard C.B., Bell J.E., Dodgen D., Eisen R.J., Fann N. [et al.]. The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC, 2016. Available at: https://health2016.globalchange.gov/ (March 15, 2023).
  6. Tretii otsenochnyi doklad ob izmeneniyakh klimata i ikh posledstviyakh na territorii Rossiiskoi Federatsii. Obshchee rezyume [The third assessment report on climate change and its consequences on the territory of the Russian Federation. General summary]. Saint Petersburg, Naukoemkie tekhnologii, 2022, 124 p. (in Russian).
  7. Doklad ob osobennostyakh klimata na territorii Rossiiskoi Federatsii za 2021 god [A report on climate features on the territory of the Russian Federation in 2021]. Moscow, Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Moni-toring (ROSHYDROMET), 2022, 104 p. (in Russian).
  8. Sokolov Yu.I. Riski ekstremal'nykh pogodnykh yavlenii [Risks of extreme weather events]. Problemy analiza riska, 2018, vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 6–21 (in Russian).
  9. Khasnulin V.I., Gafarov V.V., Voevoda M.I., Razumov E.V., Artamonova M.V. Influence of meteorological factors in different seasons on incidence of hypertensive disease complications in Novosibirsk residents. Ekologiya cheloveka, 2015, no. 7, pp. 3–8 (in Russian).
  10. Varakina Zh.L., Yurasova E.D., Revich B.A., Shaposhnikov D.А., Vyazmin А.М. Air temperature impact on mortality in Arkhangelsk in 1999–2008. Ekologiya cheloveka, 2011, no. 6, pp. 28–36 (in Russian).
  11. Beker B.M., Cervellera C., De Vito A., Musso C.G. Human Physiology in Extreme Heat and Cold. Int. Arch. Clin. Physiol., 2018, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 1–8. DOI: https10.23937/iacph-2017/1710001
  12. McMichael A.J., Lindgren E. Climate change: present and future risks to health, and necessary responses. J. Intern. Med., 2011, vol. 270, no. 5, pp. 401–413. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2796.2011.02415.x
  13. Brasseur G.P. Implications of Climate Change for Air Quality. WMO. Available at: https://public.wmo.int/en/bulletin/implications-climate-change-air-quality (February 18, 2023).
  14. Brasseur G.P., Schultz M., Granier C., Saunois M., Diehl T., Botzet M. [et al.]. Impact of climate change on the future chemical composition of the global troposphere. J. Climate, 2006, vol. 19, no. 16, pp. 3932–3951. DOI: 10.1175/jcli3832.1
  15. WMO Bulletin. Weather, Climate and the Air We Breathe, 2009, vol. 58, no. 1. Available at: http://mgmtmo.ru/edumat/wmo/bulletin_58-1_ru.pdf (February 8, 2023) (in Russian).
  16. The Atlas of mortality and economic losses from weather, climate and water extremes (1970–2019). WMO, 2021, 90 p. (in Russian).
  17. Sidorov P.I., Men'shikova L.I., Buzinov R.V., Vyaz'min A.M., Degteva G.N., Sannikov A.L., Balaeva T.V., Boltenkov V.P. [et al.]. Strategiya adaptatsii k vozdeistviyu izmeneniya klimata na zdorov'e naseleniya dlya Arkhangel'skoi oblasti i Nenetskogo avtonomnogo okruga Rossiiskoi Federatsii [Strategy for adaptation to the impact of climate change on public health for the Arkhangelsk region and the Nenets Autonomous Area of the Russian Federation]. Arkhangel'sk, OOO «Triada», 2012, 98 p. (in Russian).
  18. Stafoggia M., Schwartz J., Forastiere F., Perucci C.A., SISTI Group. Does temperature modify the association between air pollution and mortality? A multicity case-crossover analysis in Italy. Am. J. Epidemiol., 2008, vol. 167, no. 12, pp. 1476–1485. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwn074
  19. Akimov L.M., Akimov E.L. Seasonal Dynamics and Spatial Distribution of Anthropogenic Pollutants Concentrations in the Air of Voronezh. Regional'nye geosistemy, 2021, vol. 45, no. 4, pp. 545–557 (in Russian).
  20. Grigor'eva I.G., Tunakova Yu.A., Shagidullina R.A., Valiev V.S., Kuznetsova O.N. 20. Otsenka vliyaniya kompleksa meteoparametrov na rasseivanie vybrosov ot statsionarnykh istochnikov zagryazneniya na primere territorii goroda Nizhnekamska [Assessment of the impact of a set of meteorological parameters on the dispersion of emissions from stationary sources of pollution on the example of the territory of the city of Nizhnekamsk]. Vestnik tekhnologicheskogo universiteta, 2015, vol. 18, no. 15, pp. 268–270 (in Russian).
  21. Climate change and health. WHO, 2021. Available at: https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-and-health (March 18, 2023).
  22. Brinchuk M.M. Natural disasters as a factor in society’s adaptation to climate change. Yuridicheskii vestnik Dage-stanskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta, 2020, vol. 34, no. 2, pp. 14–21. DOI: 10.21779/2224-0241-2020-34-2-14-21 (in Rus-sian).
  23. WHO methods and data sources for global burden of disease estimates 2000–2019. WHO, 2020. Available at: https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-source/gho-documents/global-healt... (March 16, 2023).
  24. Shur P.Z., Kiryanov D.А., Kamaltdinov М.R., Khasanova А.А. Assessing health risks caused by exposure to climatic factors for people living in the Far North. Health Risk Analysis, 2022, no. 3, pp. 53–62. DOI: 10.21668/health.risk/2022.3.04.eng
  25. Revich B.A., Grigorieva E.A. Health risks to the Russian population from weather extremes in the beginning of the XXI century. Part 1. Heat and cold waves. Problemy analiza riska, 2021, vol. 18, no. 2, pp. 12–33. DOI: 10.32686/1812-5220-2021-18-2-12-33 (in Russian).
  26. Kozlovskaya I.L., Bulkina O.S., Lopukhova V.V., Chernova N.A., Ivanova O.V., Kolmakova T.E., Karpov Yu.A. Heat and cardiovascular diseases: A review of epidemiological surveys. Terapevticheskii arkhiv, 2015, vol. 87, no. 9, pp. 84–90. DOI: 10.17116/terarkh201587984-90 (in Russian).
  27. Kilbourne E.M. The spectrum of illness during heat waves. Am. J. Prev. Med., 1999, vol. 16, no. 4, pp. 359–360. DOI: 10.1016/s0749-3797(99)00016-1
  28. Revich B.A. Heat-waves in metropolises and thresholds of their impact on public health. Gigiena i sanitariya, 2017, vol. 96, no. 11, pp. 1073–1078. DOI: 10.47470/0016-9900-2017-96-11-1073-1078 (in Russian).
  29. Revich B.A., Shaposhnikov D.A. Excess mortality during heat waves and cold spells in Moscow, Russia. Occup. Environ. Med., 2008, vol. 65, no. 10, pp. 691–696. DOI: 10.1136/oem.2007.033944
  30. Chernykh D.A., Taseiko O.V. Assessment of the risk mortality from heat waves in Krasnoyarsk city. Aktual'nye prob-lemy aviatsii i kosmonavtiki, 2017, vol. 2, no. 13, pp. 678–680 (in Russian).
  31. Toxicological profile for carbon monoxide. Atlanta, GA, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry, 2012, 347 p.
Received: 
02.04.2023
Approved: 
19.05.2023
Accepted for publication: 
02.06.2023

You are here

Home