A conceptual scheme of a predictive-analytical model for describing incidence of west nile fever based on weather and climate estimation (exemplified by the Volgograd region)

View or download the full article: 

K.V. Zhukov1, D.N. Nikitin1, D.V. Kovrizhnykh2, D.V. Viktorov1, А.V. Toporkov1


1Volgograd Scientific Research Anti-Plague Institute, 7 Golubinskaya Str., Volgograd, 400131, Russian Federation
2Volgograd State Medical University, 1 Pavshikh Bortsov Sq., Volgograd, 400131, Russian Federation


The present study focuses on weather and climatic factors influencing the incidence of West Nile fever (WNF) in the Vol-gograd region. We aimed to describe a relationship between these factors and the WNF incidence and to create a conceptual scheme of a predictive-analytical model for making forecasts how an epidemiological situation would develop in future.
According to this aim, we selected an approach that involved identifying a statistical correlation between the analyzed factors and the WNF incidence in the Volgograd region and estimating the power of this correlation. The study primarily relied on using correlation analysis that was followed by assessing authenticity of the study results. The obtained data made it possible to establish that air temperature was a leading potentiating factor in the Volgograd region. It produced certain effects that varied in their intensity on a whole set of abiotic and biotic factors (water level and temperature, numbers and activity of carriers, how fast the virus amplifies in carriers, etc.).
The study established that use of comprehensive statistical data (average monthly indicators) allowed more precise esti-mation of correlations. We also considered and confirmed a hypothesis about a delayed effect produced by air temperature on population incidence and numbers of West Nile virus carriers in the Volgograd region; it was the most apparent in years with the maximum numbers of infected people (1999, 2010, and 2012). We revealed a statistical correlation between air temperature and average annual water level and the WNF incidence among population and the number of West Nile virus carriers. There was a strong correlation between the number of carriers and the WNF incidence. A conceptual scheme of a predictive model for determining rate of the WHF incidence in Volgograd region was created based on the statistical analysis results.

West Nile fever, West Nile virus, epidemic situation, predictive-analytical model, factor estimation, weather and climatic peculiarities, correlation analysis, WN virus carriers, Volgograd region
Zhukov K.V., Nikitin D.N., Kovrizhnykh D.V., Viktorov D.V., Toporkov А.V. A conceptual scheme of a predictive-analytical model for describing incidence of west nile fever based on weather and climate estimation (exemplified by the Volgograd region). Health Risk Analysis, 2022, no. 4, pp. 124–136. DOI: 10.21668/health.risk/2022.4.12.eng
  1. Family: Flaviviridae. Genus: Flavivirus. International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses, 2021. Available at: https://talk.ictvonline.org/ictv-reports/ictv_online_report/positive-sen... (April 14, 2022).
  2. Fall G., Diallo M., Loucoubar C., Faye O., Sall A.A. Vector competence of Culex neavei and Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culicidae) from Senegal for lineages 1, 2, Koutango and a putative new lineage of West Nile virus. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg., 2014, vol. 90, no. 4, pp. 747–754. DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.13-0405
  3. Hagman K., Barboutis C., Ehrenborg C., Fransson T., Jaenson T.G.T., Lindgren P.-E., Lundkvist A., Nyström F. [et al.]. On the potential roles of ticks and migrating birds in the ecology of West Nile virus. Infect. Ecol. Epidemiol., 2014, vol. 4, pp. 20943. DOI: 10.3402/iee.v4.20943
  4. Sardelis M.R., Turell M.J., O’Guinn M.L., Andre R.G., Roberts D.R. Vector competence of three North American strains of Aedes albopictus for West Nile virus. J. Am. Mosq. Control Assoc., 2002, vol. 18, no. 4, pp. 284–289.
  5. Julander J.G., Winger Q.A., Rickords L.F., Shi P.-Y., Tilgner M., Binduga-Gajewska I., Sidwell R.W., Morrey J.D. West Nile virus infection of the placenta. Virology, 2006, vol. 347, no. 1, pp. 175–182. DOI: 10.1016/j.virol.2005.11.040
  6. Hinckley A.F., O’Leary D.R., Hayes E.B. Transmission of West Nile virus through human breast milk seems to be rare. Pediatrics, 2007, vol. 119, no. 3, pp. e666–e671. DOI: 10.1542/peds.2006-2107
  7. Iwamoto M., Jernigan D.B., Guasch A., Trepka M.J., Blackmore C.G., Hellinger W.C., Pham S.M., Zaki S. [et al.]. Transmission of West Nile virus from an organ donor to four transplant recipients. N. Engl. J. Med., 2003, vol. 348, no. 22, pp. 2196–2203. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa022987
  8. Putintseva E.V., Alekseychik I.O., Chesnokova S.N., Udovichenko S.K., Boroday N.V., Nikitin D.N., Agarkova E.A., Baturin A.A. [et al.]. Results of the West Nile Fever Agent Monitoring in the Russian Federation in 2019 and the Forecast of Epidemic Situation Development in 2020. Problemy osobo opasnykh infektsii, 2020, no. 1, pp. 51–60. DOI: 10.21055/0370-1069-2020-1-51-60 (in Russian).
  9. Cutcher Z., Williamson E., Lynch S.E., Rowe S., Clothier H.J., Firestone S.M. Predictive modelling of Ross River virus notifications in southeastern Australia. Epidemiol. Infect., 2017, vol. 145, no. 3, pp. 440–450. DOI: 10.1017/S0950268816002594
  10. Giordano B.V., Kaur S., Hunter F.F. West Nile virus in Ontario, Canada: A twelve-year analysis of human case preva-lence, mosquito surveillance, and climate data. PLoS One, 2017, vol. 12, no. 8, pp. e0183568. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0183568
  11. Karki S., Westcott N.E., Muturi E.J., Brown W.M., Ruiz M.O. Assessing human risk of illness with West Nile virus mosquito surveillance data to improve public health preparedness. Zoonoses Public Health, 2018, vol. 65, no. 1, pp. 177–184. DOI: 10.1111/zph.12386
  12. Kwan J.L., Kluh S., Reisen W.K. Antecedent avian immunity limits tangential transmission of West Nile virus to hu-mans. PLoS One, 2012, vol. 7, no. 3, pp. e34127. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0034127
  13. Chuang T.-W., Hildreth M.B., Vanroekel D.L., Wimberly M.C. Weather and land cover influences on mosquito pop-ulations in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. J. Med. Entomol., 2011, vol. 48, no. 3, pp. 669–679. DOI: 10.1603/me10246
  14. Gibbs S.E.J., Wimberly M.C., Madden M., Masour J., Yabsley M.J., Stallknecht D.E. Factors affecting the geographic distribution of West Nile virus in Georgia, USA: 2002–2004. Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis., 2006, vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 73–82. DOI: 10.1089/vbz.2006.6.73
  15. Stewart-Ibarra A.M., Lowe R. Climate and non-climate drivers of Dengue epidemics in southern coastal Ecuador. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg., 2013, vol. 88, no. 5, pp. 971–981. DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.12-0478
  16. Zhukov K.V., Udovichenko S.K., Nikitin D.N., Viktorov D.V., Toporkov A.V. Application of Geographic Information Systems in epidemiological surveillance for West Nile Fever and other arbovirus infections at the modern stage. Infektsionnye bolezni: novosti, mneniya, obuchenie, 2021, vol. 10, no. 2 (37), pp. 16–24. DOI: 10.33029/2305-3496-2021-10-2-16-24 (in Russian).
  17. Ganushkina L.A., Dremova V.P. Mosquitoes of g. Culex, description of some species, epidemiological significance, pest control. Report No. 1. Description of genus Culex and some species, epidemiological significance. RET-info, 2006, no. 4, pp. 7–10 (in Russian).
  18. Vinogradova E.B. Komary kompleksa Culex pipiens v Rossii [Mosquitoes of the Culex pipiens complex in Russia]. Trudy zoologicheskogo instituta RAN, 1997, vol. 271, pp. 307 (in Russian).
  19. Ciota A.T., Matacchiero A.C., Kilpatrick A.M., Kramer L.D. The effect of temperature on life history traits of Culex mosquitoes. J. Med. Entomol., 2014, vol. 51, no. 1, pp. 55–62. DOI: 10.1603/me13003
  20. Komar N., Langevin S., Hinten S., Nemeth N., Edwards E., Hettler D., Davis B., Bowen R., Bunning M. Experimental infection of North American birds with the New York 1999 strain of West Nile virus. Emerg. Infect. Dis., 2003, vol. 9, no. 3, pp. 311–322. DOI: 10.3201/eid0903.020628
Accepted for publication: 

You are here