Life expectancy at birth for the rf population: prediction based on modeling influence exerted by a set of socio-hygienic determinants on age-specific mortality rates exemplified by diseases of the circulatory system

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М.V. Glukhikh, S.V. Kleyn, D.А. Kiryanov, М.R. Kamaltdinov


Federal Scientific Center for Medical and Preventive Health Risk Management Technologies, 82 Monastyrskaya Str., Perm, 614045, Russian Federation


The article dwells on cause-effect relations between certain socio-hygienic factors and age-specific mortality rates due to cardiovascular diseases. New research trends in hygiene, a multidisciplinary approach to studies in the field and the current state policy make the present work topical.

Our methodical approach to predicting probable age-specific mortality rates due to cardiovascular diseases relied on applying artificial neural networks. We analyzed a set of indicators that described the public healthcare system, sanitary-epidemiological welfare on a given territory, lifestyle, economic conditions, sociodemographic conditions, and primary incidence.

Overall, we obtained 18 models (as per 5-year age-specific periods) of a relationship between socio-hygienic determinants and mortality rates due to cardiovascular diseases. The determination coefficients fell within 0.01–0.75 range and the greatest explanatory power occurred when the age period “30 years and older” was analyzed. We detected comparability of variational series obtained for mortality due to cardiovascular diseases among the whole population and the determination coefficients of the created models. We established predictive estimates of life expectancy at birth (LEB) in case there were changes in the analyzed socio-hygienic determinants by 2024 set within a certain scenario. Thus, changes in the whole set of determinants would result in 514 days added to LEB; lifestyle-related indicators, 205 days; indicators describing sanitary-epidemiological welfare, 126 days; economic indicators, 102 days; sociodemographic indicators, 101 days; primary incidence rates, 40 days; indicators describing the public healthcare system, 19 days. Several determinants were shown to be the most significant for reducing mortality due to cardiovascular diseases among working age population and older age groups. They are indicators describing people’s physical and motor activity, income levels, consumption of vegetables, education, and working conditions. Our research results are consistent with those obtained by other studies with their focus on establishing cause-effect relations between environmental factors and public health.

life expectancy at birth, mortality, cardiovascular diseases, socio-hygienic determinants, environmental factors, lifestyle factors, artificial neural networks, factor analysis, prediction of medical-demographic situation
Glukhikh М.V., Kleyn S.V., Kiryanov D.А., Kamaltdinov М.R. Life expectancy at birth for the rf population: prediction based on modeling influence exerted by a set of socio-hygienic determinants on age-specific mortality rates exemplified by diseases of the circulatory system. Health Risk Analysis, 2022, no. 3, pp. 98–109. DOI: 10.21668/health.risk/2022.3.09.eng
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