Assessing health risks caused by exposure to climatic factors for people living in the far north

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P.Z. Shur, D.А. Kiryanov, М.R. Kamaltdinov, А.А. Khasanova


Federal Scientific Center for Medical and Preventive Health Risk Management Technologies, 82 Monastyrskaya Str., Perm, 614045, Russian Federation


Extreme climatic conditions in the Far North region create health risks for people living there. Given the necessity to adapt to these conditions, it seems vital to assess health risks caused by exposure to extreme climatic factors. Such an assessment will give an opportunity to establish and quantify influence exerted by climatic factors on public health.

The task was to assess risk rates for adults and children living in the Far North region in Russia. To do that, we analyzed the “exposure – effect” relationship for previously established climatic factors (atmospheric pressure and atmospheric air temperature, air humidity, and wind speed (as an index of the normal equivalent-effective temperature – NEET). Additional likelihood of incidence associated with exposure to climatic factors and occurring risk rates were calculated and then characterized based on the results of the analysis using mathematical modeling techniques.

As a result, we identified parameters of a cause-effect relation between average monthly NEET, daily pressure drops and incidence among population living in the Far North. We established unacceptable health risks for adults caused by diseases of the circulatory system that were associated with effects produced by NEET and atmospheric pressure, diseases of the respiratory system, injury, poisoning and certain other consequences of external causes associated with effects produced by NEET. We also established unacceptable health risks for children caused by diseases of the respiratory system, injury, poisoning and certain other consequences of external causes associated with effects produced by NEET. The results produced by this study can provide a guideline for developing activities aimed at facilitating adaptation to the existing climatic conditions in order to preserve public health.

risk assessment, climatic factors, risk characteristic, analysis of the “exposure – effect” relationship, atmospheric pressure, NEET index, adaptation, climate change, public health
Shur P.Z., Kiryanov D.А., Kamaltdinov М.R., Khasanova А.А. Assessing health risks caused by exposure to climatic factors for people living in the Far North. Health risk Analysis, 2022, no. 3, pp. 53–62. DOI: 10.21668/health.risk/2022.3.04.eng
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