Assessing and predicting individual occupational risk and determining its exact categories using probabilistic methods

View or download the full article: 
PDF icon health-risk-analysis-2021-4-10.pdf
UDC: 
613.6.027
DOI: 
10.21668/health.risk/2021.4.10.eng
Authors: 

V.A. Fokin, N.V. Zaitseva, P.Z. Shur, S.V. Redko, E.V. Khrusheva

Organization: 

Federal Scientific Center for Medical and Preventive Health Risk Management Technologies, 82 Monastyrskaya Str., Perm, 614045, Russian Federation

Abstract: 

Existing approaches to occupational risk assessment more often involve evaluating its group levels and individual risks are assessed less frequently. These approaches provide deterministic risk assessment which doesn’t take into account uncertainty in risk categorizing when its values are close to boundaries between adjoining risks categories. It substantiates the necessity to assess occupational risk levels using probabilistic methods.

Our research object was occupational risk and the basic subject was distribution of individual occupational risk levels among workers. Our test group was made up of oil and gas extraction operators exposed to noise equal to 80–85 dBA at their workplaces (173 people). Our control group included oil and gas extraction operators and engineering and technical personnel occupationally exposed to noise equal to 60–77.8 dBA (259 people). We performed a priori assessment of occupational health risks; accomplished epidemiologic analysis of a cause-effect relation between health disorders and work; calculated group occupational health risks; calculated and predicted individual occupational risk using mathematical modeling of dependence between probable negative responses and working conditions, age, and period of employment; determined risk categories more precisely using fuzzy sets by calculating the membership function.

As a result, we established that proven individual risk levels were distributed unevenly (1.06•10-4–1.47•10-2) as per categories within a group characterized with a suspected average risk level. A category of proven individual risk levels was determined more precisely using fuzzy sets; after that distribution of probability of their membership was evaluated to detect that at the moment of the research a share of workers with their proven individual occupational risks falling into lower risk categories (p > 0.5) amounted to 89.6 %.

We attempted to predict risks for the whole employment period given that working conditions remained the same and no prevention activities were provided. Our prediction revealed that individual occupational risks would remain unacceptable for all workers in the test group and would amount to 2.53•10-2–3.51•10-2; a risk category was also expected to become higher. In-dividual occupational risk would be categorized as average for most workers and as high for 23 % of them (p < 0.5).

Keywords: 
occupational risk, noise, probabilistic assessment, risk level categorizing, regression models, risk level prediction, sensorineural hearing loss, fuzzy sets
Fokin V.A., Zaitseva N.V., Shur P.Z., Redko S.V., Khrusheva E.V. Assessing and predicting individual occupational risk and determining its exact categories using probabilistic methods.. Health Risk Analysis, 2021, no. 4, pp. 92–99. DOI: 10.21668/health.risk/2021.4.10.eng
References: 
  1. Roslyi O.F., Fedoruk A.A., Drugova O.G., Plotko E.G. Itogi otsenki professional'nogo riska dlya zdorov'ya rabotnikov po materialam SOUT, proizvodstvennogo kontrolya i professional'noi zabolevaemosti [The results of assessing occupational health risks for workers based on the materials of a special assessment of working conditions, production control and occupational morbidity]. Upravlenie riskom dlya zdorov'ya rabotayushchikh i naseleniya v svyazi s khozyaistvennoi deyatel'nost'yu predpriyatii metallurgicheskoi promyshlennosti: materialy Vserossiiskoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii s mezhdunarodnym uchastiem. Ekaterinburg, FBUN EMNTs POZRPP Rospotrebnadzora Publ., 2017, pp. 119–125 (in Russian).
  2. Golovkova N.P., Kotova N.I., Chebotarev A.G. Otsenka urovnya professional'nogo riska u rabotnikov gorno-metallurgicheskikh predpriyatii po rezul'tatam spetsial'noi otsenki uslovii truda [Assessment of the level of occupational risk among workers employed at mining and metallurgical enterprises based on the results of a special assessment of working conditions]. Sovre-mennye problemy meditsiny truda: materialy vserossiiskoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii, posvyashchennoi 80-letiyu akademika RAN N.Kh. Amirova. Kazan', Kazanskii GMU, FGBNU “NII MT” Publ., 2019, pp. 51–54. DOI: 10.31089/978-5-6042929-0-7-2019-1-51-54 (in Russian).
  3. Denisov E.I., Prokopenko L.V., Stepanyan I.V., Chesalin P.V. The loudness and hazard of noise; phenomenology, measure-ment, and evaluation. Gigiena i sanitariya, 2009, no. 5, pp. 26–29 (in Russian).
  4. Denisov E.I., Tchesalin P.V. Occupationally related morbidity and its evidence. Meditsina truda i promyshlennaya ekologiya, 2007, no. 10, pp. 1–9 (in Russian).
  5. Simonova N.I., Nizyaeva I.V., Nazarov S.G., Zhuravlyova E.A., Kondrova N.S., Stepanov E.G., Fasikov R.M., Grigorieva S.M. [et al.]. Comparative analysis of occupational risk evaluation results through various methodic approaches. Meditsina truda i promyshlennaya ekologiya, 2012, no. 1, pp. 13–19 (in Russian).
  6. Xu Q., Yu F., Li F., Zhou H., Zheng K., Zhang M. Quantitative differences between common occupational health risk as-sessment models. J. Occup. Health, 2020, vol. 62, no. 1, pp. e12164. DOI: 10.1002/1348-9585.12164
  7. Petereit-Haack G., Bolm-Audorff U., Romero Starke K., Seidler A. Occupational risk for post-traumatic stress disorder and trauma-related depression: a systematic review with meta-analysis. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 2020, vol. 17, no. 24, pp. 9369. DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17249369
  8. Gunnarsson L.G., Bodin L. Occupational exposures and neurodegenerative diseases – a systematic literature review and meta-analyses. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 2019, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 337. DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16030337
  9. Zaitseva N.V., Shur P.Z., Alekseev V.B., Savochkina A.A., Savochkin A.I., Khrushcheva E.V. Methodical approaches to as-sessing categories of occupational risk predetermined by various health disorders among workers related to occupational and labor process factors. Health Risk Analysis, 2020, no. 4, pp. 23–30. DOI: 10.21668/health.risk/2020.4.03.eng
  10. Shlyapnikov D.M., Shur P.Z., Alexeev V.B., Uhabov V.M., Novoselov V.G., Perevalov A.Ya. New potential of MTHFR gene variations application as an individual sensitivity marker in evaluation of occupational risk of arterial hypertension under exposure to nose. Meditsina truda i promyshlennaya ekologiya, 2016, no. 8, pp. 6–10 (in Russian).
  11. Blaginina T.F., Bolotnova T.V. Sensorineural hearing loss as a predictor of endothelial dysfunction in some non-communicable diseases in the working population (a review of interdisciplinary studies). Kubanskii nauchnyi medicinskii vestnik, 2020, vol. 27, no. 2, pp. 113–126. DOI: 10.25207/1608-6228-2020-27-2-113-126 (in Russian).
  12. Syurin S.A. Industrial noise and occupational noise-induced hearing loss at enterprises in the Russian arctic. Bezopasnost' i okhrana truda, 2020, vol. 82, no. 1, pp. 49–53 (in Russian).
  13. Kuznetsova G.I. Vliyanie shuma na zdorov'e rabotnikov neftedobyvayushchei promyshlennosti [Effects of noise on health of workers employed in oil extracting industry]. Zdravookhranenie Yugry: opyt i innovatsii, 2021, vol. 28, no. 3, pp. 53–60 (in Rus-sian).
  14. Shaikhlislamova E.R., Volgareva A.D. Occupational pathology caused by the influence of the noise-vibration factor in the Republic of Bashkortostan: dynamics, clinical features. Bezopasnost' i okhrana truda, 2019, vol. 81, no. 4, pp. 38–41 (in Russian).
  15. Zinkin V.N., Sheshegov P.M., Chistov S.D. The clinical aspects of occupational sensorineural impairment of hearing of the acoustic origin. Vestnik otorinolaringologii, 2015, no. 6, pp. 65–70 (in Russian).
  16. Pankova V.B., Tavartkiladze G.A., Mukhamedova G.R. Occupational hearing loss: new approach to diagnostic, labour ca-pacity examination and rehabilitation. Meditsina ekstremal'nyh situatsii, 2013, vol. 43, no. 1, pp. 25–29 (in Russian).
  17. Kravchenko E.V., Suhoveeva A.A. Targets and current trends in the development of pension provision in Russia. Ekonomika, predprinimatel'stvo i pravo, 2021, vol. 11, no. 5, pp. 1063–1076. DOI: 10.18334/epp.11.5.112081 (in Russian).
  18. Novikova T.A., Mikhailova N.A., Raikin S.S. Professional'nyi risk uskorennogo stareniya rabotnikov, zanyatykh vo vred-nykh i opasnykh usloviyakh truda (obzor literatury) [Occupational risk of accelerated aging of workers employed in hazardous and adverse working conditions]. Gigiena, ekologiya i riski zdorov'yu v sovremennykh usloviyakh: materialy mezhregional'noi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii molodykh uchenykh i spetsialistov, 2018, pp. 114–129 (in Russian).
  19. Vlasova E.M., Ustinova O.Yu., Fainburg G.Z., Petrov A.N. Health damage risk for workers in harmful and dangerous working conditions and possibility of its minimization. Aktual'nye problemy ohrany truda i bezopasnosti proizvodstva, dobychi i ispol'zovaniya kaliino-magnievykh solei: materialy I Mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii. Perm', 2018, pp. 11–24 (in Russian).
  20. Fokin V.A. Health risk assessment for workers in the extractive industries under conditions of noise exposure above 80 dBA. Meditsina truda i promyshlennaya ekologiya, 2020, vol. 60, no. 11, pp. 867–869. DOI: 10.31089/1026-9428-2020-60-11-867-869 (in Russian).
Received: 
06.09.2021
Accepted: 
10.12.2021
Published: 
30.12.2021

You are here

Home