Creating zones in administrative districts located in the Russian arctic region specific as per threats of cattle burials decay due to permafrost degradation
B.A. Revich1, D.A. Shaposhnikov1, S.R. Raichich2, S.A. Saburova2, E.G. Simonova3
1Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 47 Nakhimovskii Ave., Moscow, 117418, Russian Federation
2Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, 3A Novogireevskaya Str., Moscow, 111123, Russian Federation
3I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, 2/6 Bol'shaya Pirogovskaya Str., Moscow, 119435, Russian Federation
Climatic changes have already resulted and will continue to result in gradual degradation of active upper layers in permafrost due to increased average air temperature in summer. Anthrax is an example of a climate-depending bacterial infection; anthrax agent creates spores that remain viable for a long period of time they spend in cryptobiosis in permafrost. Apparent permafrost degradation is already detected in most arctic regions in Russia and it can lead to anthrax burials decay thus creating elevated risks of the infection among farm animals and people who live on these territories.
Our research goal was to create specific zones in municipal districts via combining data on permafrost, number of anthrax cattle burials, ascending trends in average long-term temperatures, and population density.
We developed two relative hazard coefficients for characterizing anthrax outbreaks probability for animals and local population. Basing on numeric values obtained for these two coefficients, 70 administrative districts located in 15 RF subjects in the Arctic zone were listed in a descending order as per risks of the infection occurrence. We created two score scales showing relative hazard; they indicated that the highest population risk was typical for urban districts as population density there was much high than in rural ones. Our calculations should be helpful for determining priorities when preventive activities are developed on arctic and sub-arctic territories that are endemic as per anthrax. It is also important to obtain an actual list of cattle burials and to develop spatial-time models showing anthrax outbreaks occurrence taking into account climatic warming and permafrost degradation.
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