On epidemiologic risks, their categories and predictors in sanitary-epidemiologic (biological) emergency situations

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UDC: 
10.21668/health.risk/2020.1.09.eng
DOI: 
10.21668/health.risk/2020.1.09.eng
Authors: 

S.K. Udovichenko1, V.P. Toporkov2

Organization: 

1Volgograd Scientific Research Anti-Plague Institute, 7 Golubinskata Str., Volgograd, 400131, Russian Federation
2«Microbe» Russian Scientific Research Anti-Plague Institute, 46 Universitetskaya Str., Saratov, 410005, Russian Federation

Abstract: 

Nowadays sanitary-epidemiologic (biological) emergency situations can be overlooked, especially at an initial stage in epidemiologic risks realization and the consequent development of epidemic process. A clear example here is how Ebola epidemics started in the Western Africa (2013–2016).
Our research goal was to obtain actual data on any existing crucial combinations of epidemiologic risk categories and predictors as emergency situations precursors.
Our basic research procedure was a complex epidemiologic one. Our work was based on analyzing official data provided by the World Health Organization, WHO Regional Office for Africa, as well as taken from multiple research works and monographs.
We analyzed two epidemics caused by infectious agents belonging to the 1st pathogenicity group, Ebola epidemics in the Western Africa (2013–2016) and pneumonic plague epidemic in Madagascar (2017). Both those epidemics were characterized with such potential emergency situations properties fixed in the International Health Regulations (2005) as unexpectedness, unusualness, and gravity. We showed that each epidemic had its own crucial combination of epidemiologic risk categories and their functionality and predictors that were emergency situations precursors. Those combinations occurred just at the very beginning of the epidemics development, after epidemiologic risks had manifested and an epidemic process started to develop intensively and extensively. We assume that should a data base with data on such combinations be created, monitoring over them and targeted activities aimed at their elimination will allow enhancing a preventive potential of the International Health Regulations (2005) as regards emergency situations.

Keywords: 
sanitary-epidemiological (biological) emergency situation, epidemiologic risk, epidemiologic risk categories, predictors, epidemic process, International Health Regulations (2005), Ebola virus disease epidemic in West Africa (2013–2016), pneumonic plague
Udovichenko S.K., Toporkov V.P. On epidemiologic risks, their categories and predictors in sanitary-epidemiologic (biological) emergency situations. Health Risk Analysis, 2020, no. 1, pp. 83–91. DOI: 10.21668/health.risk/2020.1.09.eng
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Received: 
19.09.2020
Accepted: 
03.02.2020
Published: 
30.03.2020

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