Risk-oriented approach in analyzing epidemiologic situation with incidence with tick-borne encephalitis on endemic territories
A.G. Sergeev1,3, V.A. Mishchenko1,4, I.P. Bykov1, V.V. Romanenko3, L.G. Chistyakova2, A.V. Alimov1
1Yekaterinburg Scientific Research Institute for Viral Infections Studies, a subsidiary of the Vektor State Scientific Center for Virology and Biotechnology, 23 Letnyaya Str., Yekaterinburg, 620030, Russian Federation
2Federal Service for Surveillance over Consumer Rights protection and Human Well-being, Sverdlovsk regional office, 3 Otdelnyi lane, Yekaterinburg, 620078, Russian Federation
3Ural State Medical University, 3 Repina Str., Yekaterinburg, 62002, Russia Federation
4Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology of the Urals Department of Russian Academy of Science URAN, 202 8 Marta Str., Yekaterinburg, 620144, Russian Federation
Sverdlovsk region is a zone with a strenuous natural-anthropogenic focus of virus tick-borne encephalitis (TBE). Incidence with the disease has decreased by 5 times over the last 20 years due to mass vaccination among population. Since 2015 incidence with TBE has remained steady at fewer than 3 cases per 100,000 people. However, over the last 10 years incidence with TBE has been decreasing at a significantly slower rate due to a considerable growth in number of immune people (from 68 % in 2007 to 84.99 % in 2018). Analysis revealed that probability of the disease after a person had been bitten by a tick was quite different on different territories in the region.
Our research goal was to develop a procedure for ranking administrative territories as per risks of clinical TBE occurrence among people bitten by ticks.
We took a number of people bitten by ticks per one TBE case as our risk parameter. Our analysis revealed that average regional risk reached its maximum values (1:40–1:50) in years prior to implementation of mass vaccination against TBE. As a number of immune people grew, risk fell by 6 times (just 1 TBE case per 319 bitten people in 2018). Average regional risk was taken as to be equal to 1. We ranked administrative territories as per their risk index values (a ratio of a territorial risk to average regional one).
We showed that ranking of TBE-endemic territories as per their risk index allowed implementing a differentiated approach to planning and organizing efficient prevention
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