Influence exerted by biological and social risk factors on morbidity with tick-borne en-cephalitis in some regins in the Urals Federal District
V.A. Mishchenko1,2, I.A. Kshnyasev2, Yu.A. Zakharova1, I.P. Bykov1, A.G. Sergeev1,3, T.A. Rupysheva1, L.G. Vyatkina1, O.V. Ladygin1
1Yekaterinburg Scientific Research Institute for Viral Infections, 23 Letnyaya Str., Yekaterinburg, 620030, Russian Federation
2Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology of the Urals Department of Russian Academy of Science, 202 8 Marta Str., URAN, Yekaterinburg, 620144, Russian Federation
3Ural State Medical University, 3 Repina Str., 630028, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation
Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) as an infectious disease remains a significant issue in the Urals Federal District (the UFD). To correctly describe impacts exerted by risk factors on TBE epidemic process, it is necessary to analyze both common and individual peculiarities related to how TBE epidemic process develops on endemic administrative territories.
We assessed impacts exerted by biological and social factors on morbidity with TBE in four endemic regions in the UFD (Sverdlovsk, Chelyabinsk, Tyumen, and Kurgan regions) over 2007–2017.
To quantitatively assess contributions made by specific factors into morbidity with TBE, we calculated chances for people who suffered tick bites to fall ill with TBE; it allowed us to apply standard procedures within generalized linear models theory (GLM), namely logistic regression. Our analysis included aggregated data on quantity of people who were bitten by ticks and fell will with TBE in all the examined regions. We also assessed data for each specific region as all these endemic territories had both common and specific regularities related to TBE endemic process development.
We showed statistically significant impacts exerted by specific manageable risk factors (vaccination, immune prevention, and acaricide treatment performed on a territory) on a possibility of TBE occurrence among people bitten by ticks on endemic territories. The examined UFD regions differ as per effects produced by natural and social risk factors on TBE develop-ment. Mass vaccine prevention is a key factor in the control over morbidity with the disease.
Risk-oriented approach provides significant additional data for analyzing an epidemiological situation and planning efficient preventive activities in TBE natural foci.
- Chernokhaeva L.L., Kholodilov I.S., Pakskina N.D. Current distribution area of tick-borne encephalitis in the Russian Federation. Meditsinskaya virusologiya, 2016, vol. 30, no. 1, pp. 6–22 (in Russian).
- Kon'kova-Reidman A.B., Ter-Bagdasaryan L.V. Modern aspects of epidemiology of ticks transmitted infections. Epi-demiologiya infektsionnye bolezni, 2014, vol. 19, no. 5, pp. 26–31 (in Russian).
- Zlobin V.I. Epidemiologic situation and problems in struggle with tick-borne encephalitis in Russian Federation. Terra Medica, 2010, vol. 61, no. 2, pp. 13–21 (in Russian).
- Yastrebov V.K., Rudakov N.V., Rudakova, S.A. Epidemiology of the transmissible tick-borne infections in Russia. Zdorov'e naseleniya i sreda obitaniya, 2016, vol. 284, no. 11, pp. 8–12 (in Russian).
- Zhigalsky O.A. The Analysis of Forecasting Methods of Morbidity from Zoonotic Infections. Epidemiologiya i vak-tsinoprofilaktika, 2012, vol. 64, no. 3, pp. 26–31 (in Russian).
- Shchuchinova L.D., Zlobin V.I. The social factors influencing tick-borne encephalitis incidence in the Altai Republic. Sibirskii meditsinskii zhurnal, 2014, vol. 124, no. 1, pp. 78–80 (in Russian).
- Lbov G.S., Polyakova G.L., Bakhvalova V.N., Morozova O.V. The Role of The Climatic Factors in Tick-Born En-cephalitis Disease's Indices. Vestnik Novosibirskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriya: Biologiya, klinicheskaya meditsina, 2010, vol. 8, no. 2, pp. 33–39 (in Russian).
- Berikov V.B., Lbov G.S., Polyakova G.L., Bakhvalova V.N., Рanov V.V., Shchuchinova L.D., Gladky P.A., Korotkov Yu.S. [et al.]. Analysis of Factors Influencing the Incidence of Tick-Borne Encephalitis, Using Logical-and-Probabilistic and Cor-relation-Regression Models. Epidemiologiya i vaktsinoprofilaktika, 2011, vol. 61, no. 6, pp. 25–34 (in Russian).
- Knap N., Avšič-Županc T. Factors affecting the ecology of tick-borne encephalitis in Slovenia. Epidemiology and In-fection, 2015, vol. 143, no. 10, pp. 2059–2067. DOI: 10.1017/S0950268815000485
- Kiffner C., Zucchini W., Schomaker P., Vor T., Hagedorn P., Niedrig M., Rühe F. Determinants of tick-borne encephalitis in counties of southern Germany, 2001–2008. International Journal of Health Geographics, 2010, vol. 9, pp. 1–10. DOI: 10.1186/1476-072X-9-42
- Tyulko Zh.S., Yakimenko V.V., Rudakov N.V., Savelyev D.A., Andaev E.I., Balakhonov S.V. Determination of tick-borne encephalitis morbidity risk in the Russian Federation based on discriminant analysis of long-term observations. Natsional'nye prioritety Rossii, 2017, vol. 26, no. 4, pp. 54–59 (in Russian).
- McCullagh P., Nelder J.A. Generalized linear models. London, Chapman and Hall Publ., 1989, 511 p.
- R Development Core Team. R: a language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna, Austria, The R Foundation for Statistical Computing Publ., 2018. Available at: https://www.R-project.org (21.03.2019).
- Luchinina S.V., Semenov A.I., Stepanova O.N., Pogodina V.V., Gerasimov S.G., Shcherbinina M.S., Kolesnikova L.I., Suslova T.A. Vaccinal prevention of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in Chelyabinsk Region: Dynamics of Vaccination, population Immunity, Analysis of TBE cases in Vaccinated persons. Epidemiologiya i vaktsinoprofilaktika, 2016, vol. 15, no. 1 (86), pp. 67–76 (in Russian).
- Volkova L.I., Kovtun O.P., Romanenko V.V., Ankudinova M.V., Ankudinova A.V. Clinical efficiency of vaccination and passive immunization against tick borne encephalitis in middle Urals. Ural'skii meditsinskii zhurnal, 2009, vol. 56, no. 2, pp. 129–134 (in Russian).
- Kunz C. TBE vaccination and the Austrian experience. Vaccine, 2003, vol. 21, no. 1, pp. 50–55. DOI: 10.1016/s0264-410x(02)00813-7
- Potsikailo O.V., Nikitin A. Ya., Noskov A.K., Romanova T.G., Kurganov V.E., Viktorova T.N., Kopylova I.A., Bot-vinkin A.D. Present-Day Peculiarities of Epidemiology and Prophylaxis Results of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in the Republic of Khakassia. Epidemiologiya i vaktsinoprofilaktika, 2018, vol. 17, no. 1 (98), pp. 48–55 (in Russian).
- Nikitin A.Y., Andaev E.I., Noskov A.K., Pakskina N.D., Yatsmenko E.V., Verigina E.V., Balakhonov S.V. Peculiari-ties of the Epidemiological Situation on Tick-Borne Viral Encephalitis in the Russian Federation in 2017 and the Forecast for 2018. Problemy osobo opasnykh infektsii, 2018, no. 1, pp. 44–49 (in Russian).
- Shchuchinova L.D., Kozlova I.V., Zlobin V.I. Leading Role of Dermacentor Ticks in Maintenance of the Natural Foci of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in the Altai Republic. Epidemiologiya i vaktsinoprofilaktika, 2013, vol. 73, no. 6, pp. 16–20 (in Rus-sian).
- Pogodina V.V., Shcherbinina М.S., Skrynnik S.M., Bochkovа N.G., Kolyasnikova N.M., Shirokova N.A. Epidemio-logical Situation of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in the Kurgan Region (1983–2017). Epidemiologiya i vaktsinoprofilaktika, 2018, vol. 17, no. 4 (101), pp. 46–55 (in Russian).
- Shcherbinina M.S., Pogodina V.V., Skrynnik S.M., Levina L.S., Bochkova N.G., Gerasimov S.G., Lisenkov A.N., Ishmyhametov A.A. The Condition of Post-Vaccination Immunity to the Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus in the Population Highly Endemic Area with Siberian Subtype Domination. Epidemiologiya i vaktsinoprofilaktika, 2018, vol. 17, no. 2 (99), pp. 27–36 (in Russian).