Principles of cartographic differentiation and epidemiologic zoning of ntural plague foci applied to assess and minimize population health risks

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A.A. Kuznetsov1, A.N. Matrosov1, A.M. Porshakov1, A.A. Sludsky1, A.A. Kovalevskaya2, V.P. Toporkov1


1«Microbe» Russian Scientific Research Anti-Plague Institute, 46 Universitetskaya Str., Saratov, 410005, Russian Federation
2Astrakhan Plague Control Station, 3 Kubanskaya St., Astrakhan, 414057, Russian Federation


Our research objects were rules for cartographic differentiation and epidemiologic zoning of natural plague foci that are applied in epidemiologic surveillance performed by plague control authorities in the country.

Our research goal was to unify differentiation rules as it will help to more rationally organize epidemiologic surveillance in natural foci of dangerous infections on a large territory (a region, some regions, the country as a whole).

We suggest to apply a conventional topographic mapping and to take a list of a map scaled 1:25 000 ("a sector") as a minimum formalized unit for spatial analysis. We recommend to perform epidemiologic zoning as per potential epidemiologic hazards that are characteristic for specific sectors. To determine these hazards, we should take into account prevalence and number of potential infection sources in this or that sector. We should also assess a character or a possible course of epizootic processes in populations of infection carriers and (or) carriers of infectious agents, frequency of epizooties detection, density of population who live in this or that area permanently or stay there temporarily, as well as data on morbidity registered there over the last 25 years.

Morbidity, epizootic activity, and precise localization of contagion points are significant arguments for ranking such zones as the most epidemiologically hazardous. A risk of catching plague by people has become higher in natural plague foci on the RF territory due to, for example, an increase in quantity of marmots and gophers that are caught and consumed by local population. In 2014–2016 there were some single cases of people catching bubonic plague in Gorno-Altaysk highland focus; it substantiated assigning of contagion areas into the most epidemiologically hazardous category. The same situation is observed in plague foci in Tyva Republic and Kalmykia Republic.

Detailed epidemiologic zoning of natural plague foci based on cartographic differentiation is applied to perform well-grounded planning and carrying out examinations and prevention activities in each focus in order to minimize population health risks.

natural plague foci, cartography, epidemiologic surveillance, hazardous infections, prevention activities
Kuznetsov A.A., Matrosov A.N., Porshakov A.M., Sludsky A.A., Kovalevskaya A.A., Toporkov V.P. Principles of carto-graphic differentiation and epidemiologic zoning of ntural plague foci applied to assess and minimize population health risks. Health Risk Analysis, 2018, no. 4, pp. 96–104. DOI: 10.21668/health.risk/2018.4.11.eng
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