Multivariate analysis of structure and contribution per shares made by potential risk factors at malignant neoplasms in trachea, bronchial tubes and lung

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UDC: 
614.7
DOI: 
10.21668/health.risk/2017.1.06.eng
Authors: 

G.T. Aydinov1,2, B.I. Marchenko1,3, Yu.A. Sinelnikova1

Organization: 

1 Center of Hygiene and Epidemiology in the Rostov region, 67 7-th Line Str., Rostov-on-Don, 344019, Russian Federation
2 Rostov State Medical University, 29 Nakhichevanskiy pereulok, Rostov-on-Don, 344022, Russian Federation
3 Southern Federal University, 105/42 Bolshaya Sadovaya Str., Rostov-on-Don, 344006, Russian Federation

Abstract: 

The article gives the results of multivariate analysis of structure and contribution per shares made by potential risk factors at malignant neoplasms in trachea, bronchial tubes and lung. The authors used specialized databases comprising personified records on oncologic diseases in Taganrog, Rostov region, over 1986-2015 (30,684 registered cases of malignant neoplasms, including 3,480 cases of trachea cancer, bronchial tubes cancer, and lung cancer). When carrying out analytical research we applied both multivariate statistical techniques (factor analysis and hierarchical cluster correlation analysis) and conventional techniques of epidemiologic analysis including etiologic fraction calculation (EF), as well as an original technique of assessing actual (epidemiologic) risk. Average long-term morbidity with trachea, bronchial tubes and lung cancer over 2011-2015 amounts to 46.64 o / oooo . Over the last 15 years a stable decreasing trend has formed, annual average growth being – 1.22 %. This localization holds the 3rd rank place in oncologic morbidity structure, its specific weight being 10.02 %. We determined etiological fraction (EF) for smoking as a priority risk factor causing trachea, bronchial tubes and lung cancer; this fraction amounts to 76.19 % for people aged 40 and older, and to 81.99 % for those aged 60 and older. Application of multivariate statistical techniques (factor analysis and cluster correlation analysis) in this research enabled us to make factor structure more simple; namely, to highlight, interpret, give a quantitative estimate of self-descriptiveness and rank four group (latent) potential risk factors causing lung cancer.

Keywords: 
: social and hygienic monitoring, risk assessment, risk factors, malignant neoplasms, carcinogenic risk, factor analysis, hierarchical cluster correlation analysis
Aydinov G.T., Marchenko B.I., Sinelnikova Yu.A. Multivariate analysis of structure and contribution per shares made by potential risk factors at malignant neoplasms in trachea, bronchial tubes and lung. Health Risk Analysis, 2017, no. 1, pp. 47–55. DOI: 10.21668/health.risk/2017.1.06.eng
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