Methodological provision of the individual risk assessment of lung disease associated with exposure to dust factor of workplace on the base pf evolutionary models

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N.V. Zaitseva, V.B Aleksyeev, P.Z. Shur, D.А. Kiryanov, D.M. Shlyapnikov, V.М. Chigvintsev


Federal Budget Scientific Institution “Federal Scientific Center for Medical and Preventive Health Risk Management Technologies”, Russian Federation, Perm, 82 Monastyrskaya St., 614045


As the development of semi-quantitative method for risk assessment of lung disease progression due to occupational exposure to the dust factor, the risk forecast method has been proposed, which bases on the evolutionary modeling. The proposed method has a number of advantages associated with variable working conditions of workers in relation to dust concentrations in the breathing zone and the intensity of the labor process. The proposed methodology allows performing calculations at various time steps, and consider the intervals between shifts and exit out of the exposure area, risk reduction during the holiday weekend, as well as for long periods of time (vacation, breaks in work). For use in the practice the simplified algorithm, which allows to perform risk assessment on the basis of special tabulations, has been suggested.

dust factor, occupational diseases, evolutionary modeling, risk assessment
Zaitseva N.V., Aleksyeev V.B , Shur P.Z., Kiryanov D.А., Shlyapnikov D.M., Chigvintsev V.М. Methodological provision of the individual risk assessment of lung disease associated with exposure to dust factor of workplace on the base pf evolutionary models. Health Risk Analysis, 2014, no. 2, pp. 19-29
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