Comparative analysis of expectable consequences of impact on the health of citizens of different scenario conditions of time computation
V.B. Alekseyev1, D.A. Kiryanov1, M. Tsinker1, M.R. Kamaltdinov1, O.S. Novikova2
1 FBSI “Federal Scientific Center for Medical and Preventive Health Risk Management Technologies”, 82, Monastyrskaya St., Perm, 614045, Russia,
2 FSBEI HPE “Perm State National Research University”, 15, Bukireva St., Perm, 614990, Russia
To analyze expectable consequences of impact on the life and health of citizens of different scenarios of time computation, as the main impact factor the deviation (offset) of administrative time with respect to astronomical time – absolute jetlag coefficient was considered. As the indicators of response to the impact factor the indicators of population morbidity of entities of the Russian Federation were used.
On the basis of constructed statistical correlations the optimal levels of absolute jetlag coefficient were determined. By the risk criteria of additional primary children morbidity the optimal values of the absolute jetlag coefficient are in the range 56–92 min.; by the risk criteria of additional primary morbidity of adults: 71–129 min.
The assessment of the expectable consequences on the health of citizens of one or another scenario of time computation in the entity of the Russian Federation carried out by estimating the absolute jetlag coefficient, formed at a certain scenario, showed that at the current distribution of the RF entities across time zones, none of the analyzed scenarios for computing time would be optimal for absolutely all regions. Moreover, 12 entities of the Russian Federation do not reach the optimal values of the absolute jetlag coefficient in any of the scenarios of time computation considered.
Time computation in accordance with its astronomical time ((zone, geographical) is a non-optimal time by the criteria of minimizing the risk of additional morbidity in all entities of Russia and cannot be considered as a choice. Minimizing the risk from the use of each of the scenarios of time computation discussed (permanent summer, with seasonal transitions summer/winter) is possible only with the revision of the number of time zones and their composition in order to bring the administrative time offset values in the entities of the Russian Federation to the optimum values, which minimizes the risk of additional morbidity, associated with jetlag.
The least redistribution to minimize the risk scenario is required by the scenario of time computing with seasonal transitions to “winter” and “summer” time (required reconstruction of two time zones and taking a decision on the redistribution of relative time zones for 22 entities of the Russian Federation).
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